Northwest and Midwest regions reject one in five tenders as the freight map splits

Freight capacity is splitting in two: tender rejections in the Northwest hit 20.27% on Oct. 8 — more than triple the 6.2% the region posted a year ago — while the Midwest sits right behind at 18.61%, according to FreightWaves on Oct. 10.

The Northwest is a reefer story. Reefer rejections there have averaged 41% so far in October, up from about 17% in July and 16% last October, while van rejections sit under 5%. Reefer tender volume is up 65% since July and 35% year over year. The timing points to the fall produce season: apple and potato harvests in Washington, Oregon, and Idaho ramp up from late August through October, and that freight moves almost entirely in reefers. A bigger crop doesn't explain it — the USDA estimates Washington's 2026 apple crop at 176.2 million bushels, down 2% from last year, with the national crop down 7%. The capacity is simply thinner.

The Midwest is a different, longer-running case. Its rejection rate has held near or above 15% since February and stands at 18.6% now, compared with 7.6% last October, with tender volume up about 10% year over year. Unlike the Northwest, the tightness spans equipment types: Midwest van rejections are near 15%, about two and a half times last year's level, and reefer rejections are near 29%, up from 15%.

Nationally, tender rejections have eased to about 13.8% over the past two weeks, with every other region between 7.6% and 13.1% and holding flat or drifting lower. In the Southeast and Southwest, shippers have shifted freight to intermodal, with domestic intermodal volume through the Atlanta and Dallas hubs up 15% to 20% year over year this past week.