September Class 8 orders fall 9.5% to 18,700 as fleets wait on EPA'27 clarity

Preliminary North American Class 8 net orders totaled 18,700 units in September, down 9.5% from a year earlier, as regulatory uncertainty and supply chain challenges continue to cloud fleet planning and equipment demand, according to ACT Research on Oct. 12.

September usually marks the start of the annual “order season,” but some OEMs have not fully opened their 2027 order boards while the EPA has yet to finalize its 2027 NOx rules — disrupting normal seasonal patterns and forcing fleets to budget for engines whose costs are still unknown.

FTR Transportation Intelligence came in less gloomy, pegging September orders at 21,300 units — up 3% year over year and 18% from August — though its September bump was smaller than the firm normally expects for the month, according to TruckersReport.com. Both firms identified regulatory uncertainty and the timing of manufacturers’ order books as the key drags, and both see replacement demand holding up on tighter capacity and firmer freight rates. The two figures are separate preliminary estimates, not a single industry total.

ACT’s October outlook also flagged momentum on the trailer side: U.S. trailer net orders surged more than 55% month over month, with orders up 40% year to date through August, signaling early momentum as 2027 order boards open.

“Fleets are eager to replace aging equipment and prepare for anticipated cost increases, but the ability to plan remains hampered by economic and regulatory uncertainty,” said Ken Vieth, ACT’s president and senior analyst. He cautioned that the decline partly reflects materially higher order backlogs than at this time last year — not a sudden collapse in underlying demand.

For drivers, the practical signal is that fleets are likely to keep aging trucks rolling a while longer while they wait for 2027 engine pricing to settle — favoring maintenance work and used-truck seats over a flood of brand-new equipment in the near term.