Diesel up 10 cents in a week, spot rates up 2: the margin squeeze

FreightWaves' fuel data shows diesel just under $6.57 a gallon on Monday, Sept. 28 — up 10 cents in a week — while all-in truckload spot rates gained only 2 cents a mile, stretching the gap that is squeezing carrier margins.

The National Truckload Index sits 5.2% above its level from last month, when it stood at $3.28 per mile. Diesel, by contrast, is 16.5% higher than a month ago. "Fuel is rising more quickly than spot rates," analyst Julie Van de Kamp said. "So we'll continue to see that pressure on trucking companies." While fuel surcharges offset higher diesel costs on contracted freight, carriers absorb the full cost of elevated fuel prices on empty miles, making deadhead reduction a critical lever in the current environment.

On the capacity side, Van de Kamp cited a recent conversation with Jim Filter, CEO of Schneider, who echoed concerns about regulatory pressure tightening available supply — specifically crackdowns on non-domiciled CDLs and the shutdown of driving schools with inadequate training standards. Those actions are raising barriers to entry for new carriers and drivers, further constraining capacity independent of demand signals.

Demand itself remains the market's biggest wildcard, with automotive and housing still running soft and weak consumer sentiment keeping overall freight demand muted heading into peak season. Tender rejections are holding around 14%, well above year-ago readings, giving carriers continued negotiating leverage with shippers. Looking ahead, Van de Kamp projected "an elongated and stable peak" rather than a sharp seasonal surge, with contract rates continuing to climb and intermodal maintaining momentum as shippers convert loads for cost savings.

Why it matters: When fuel climbs faster than rates, the spread comes straight out of the carrier's pocket — especially on spot freight and empty miles.