FTR: Spot rates have peaked but are expected to flatten, not fall, as capacity stays tight

Spot rates have more or less peaked but are not expected to come down in the usual way, according to Commercial Carrier Journal on Oct. 15, reporting FTR Transportation Intelligence's State of Freight webinar.

Avery Vise, FTR's vice president of trucking, said capacity is not expected to loosen much. Active truck utilization is about 99%, and FTR forecasts a gradual decline only to a still historically high rate of about 96%, which keeps rates fairly strong for carriers and offers shippers little relief.

FTR put the latest week's all-in spot rates at about $2.86 a mile for dry van, up 45.2% from a year earlier, about $3.54 for refrigerated, and about $3.35 for flatbed, after a flatbed peak of about $3.85. Excluding fuel surcharges, FTR forecasts 2026 spot-rate growth of 37.6% for dry van, 35.8% for refrigerated and 35.3% for flatbed, slowing next year to 3.2% for dry van, 1.3% for refrigerated and 2.3% for flatbed.

Vise pointed to regulatory pressure as the biggest factor squeezing capacity, including English-proficiency enforcement that he said has sidelined roughly 30,000 drivers over the last year, with a run rate suggesting another 28,000 this year, alongside the non-domiciled CDL case, the Motus rollout, electronic logging device scrutiny, and tighter broker carrier selection. For-hire trucking payrolls were about 1.47 million, up 8,000 over three months but down from a peak of about 1.59 million in 2022.

FTR does not expect an industrial boom to change the picture soon, forecasting quarterly industrial growth of roughly 1% to 2% through 2027.