Driver pay changes hit a four-year high in the third quarter

Fleets adjusted driver pay in the third quarter of 2026 at a pace not seen in more than four years, according to FleetOwner on Nov. 10, reporting data from the National Transportation Institute. The institute's National Driver Wage Index — its benchmark of driver compensation — shows trucking companies made more pay changes in the third quarter than in any quarter since early 2022, and the quarter's activity exceeded what many private fleets typically do in an entire year. The finding matters because it comes after several years of relatively limited pay movement among for-hire fleets, and because it is happening while the freight market, by most measures, still has not given most fleets room to raise pay across the board.

The movement is concentrated, not general. According to the analysis, the busiest segment is over-the-road jobs, where fleets are competing for experienced drivers who are not actively looking to leave their current carrier — the drivers who have to be recruited away rather than simply hired off an application. Specialized positions, team operations and certain geographic markets are also seeing increases. Public announcements have pushed starting mileage rates for solo drivers into the $0.70-a-mile range, and the adjustments go well beyond the mileage rate: fleets are also raising stop pay, drop pay, detention pay and other activity-based compensation, and sign-on bonuses and referral incentives are getting renewed attention after a quieter stretch.

The driver supply side explains the pressure. National Transportation Institute data shows the for-hire driver population declined by more than 5% in 2025, as drivers left the market amid increased regulatory enforcement. A smaller pool of qualified drivers, competing announcements from rival fleets, and new-hire turnover that remains a serious challenge — particularly inside a driver's first 120 days — are pushing fleets to act on pay before their own drivers get recruited away. Retention math drives much of this: replacing a driver who leaves in the first four months costs a fleet the recruiting and training investment all over again, which makes a targeted pay adjustment look cheap by comparison.

Because the freight market has not improved enough for most for-hire fleets to fund across-the-board raises, pay is moving unevenly — by job type, by market and by fleet. The analysis draws a distinction drivers should keep in mind when a big number crosses their feed: a large announced raise may mean a fleet has created a real competitive advantage, or it may simply be playing catch-up, finally matching what competitors in its lanes already pay. The announcement alone does not say which. The same caution applies to starting rates generally — a headline mileage rate says nothing about the miles behind it.

That is why the institute's practical guidance is to compare total earnings rather than rates. For a fleet setting pay, that means benchmarking against the specific carriers and private fleets competing for the same drivers in the same markets — private fleets included, because they draw from the same driver pool and appear in the same pay data — and weighing miles, weekly and annual earnings, activity-based pay, guarantees and home time alongside the cents-per-mile figure, using current data rather than last year's survey. For a driver weighing an offer, the same list runs in reverse: the rate multiplied by realistic weekly miles, plus the stop, drop and detention pay the job actually generates, plus any guarantee, is the offer; the rate alone is advertising.

The timing adds urgency. The statement the institute says it hears most from fleets right now is some version of: how fast can I get the results back so I can make a decision in the fourth quarter? Fleets are trying to lock in their 2027 pay packages before the year turns, which means the fourth quarter is when next year's compensation scales are being set. And the analysis sketches the scenario that could widen today's pockets of pressure: if freight rates strengthen and demand rebounds while the qualified driver supply keeps shrinking, the targeted increases fleets are making now could become widespread — a dynamic drivers last saw in the early-2022 market, which is also the last time pay-change activity ran at this pace.

For drivers, the takeaway is narrow but real. This is not a rising tide lifting every fleet's pay, and the analysis does not claim it is. It is a market in which experienced over-the-road drivers — especially in specialized segments, team operations and tight regional markets — have more leverage than they have had in several years, and in which the fleets most eager to hire are proving it with money rather than promises. A driver fielding offers this winter should price the whole package, ask what the rate pays on the miles the fleet actually runs, and remember that a carrier raising pay in the fourth quarter is often a carrier trying to keep the drivers it already has from taking the same call.