Trucking jobs top year-ago levels for the first time since April 2023

The truck transportation jobs figure did something in September it had not done in more than three years: it came in above the year-ago level, according to FreightWaves on Oct. 2. The Bureau of Labor Statistics report released Friday showed 1,473,100 truck transportation jobs in September, up 2,600 from August — and 800 more than a year earlier, the first positive year-on-year reading since April 2023.

The gap has been closing for a while. At its widest, in June and July of 2024, the year-on-year shortfall was on either side of 60,000 jobs. A month ago it stood at 9,700. A big drop between August and September of last year, combined with this year's two-month gain, finally flipped the comparison positive. September was also the third straight month of gains; truck transportation employment is up in four of the last five months.

The truckload driver subcategory kept climbing too, though that data runs a month behind: 503,200 jobs in August, up 1,800 from 501,400 — still short of the 503,900 a year ago and well below the 553,600 peak of August and October 2022. LTL jobs rose to 248,900 in August, up 1,200 for the month. Average hourly earnings in the sector hit $32.67 in August, up from $32.36 a month earlier.

Michigan State supply chain professor Jason Miller told FreightWaves the numbers cut against the capacity-exit story: the data, he said, "points to existing establishments adding some capacity" — capacity is slowly recovering. He also cautioned the figures may be revised substantially, and Uber Freight economist Mazen Danaf warned the numbers face a significant downward revision in February, arguing the market may enter peak season undersupplied if the deeper Census data is right.