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Wall Street backs the C.H. Robinson–RXO deal; S&P turns cautious on the debt

Analysts see a credible path to $300 million in synergies as the largest brokerage merger in history moves toward a first-half 2027 close — while S&P shifted C.H. Robinson's debt outlook to negative.

By CDLWire · Published October 6, 2026

Summarized from FreightWaves.

Rows of semi trucks with shipping containers in a freight terminal yard at sunset, with a modern logistics office building in the background

One day after C.H. Robinson announced its roughly $5.8 billion acquisition of RXO — the largest truck brokerage merger in history — Wall Street's analysts were largely sold on the deal, even as S&P Global Ratings turned cautious on the debt, according to FreightWaves on Oct. 6.

UBS said in a "First Read" note that the deal makes clear strategic sense given C.H. Robinson's track record of realizing cost synergies, adding that Monday's selloff in the stock "provides opportunity" even though it will take time to see how integration unfolds. Bank of America kept its buy rating but cut its price objective to $203 from $226 to account for expected equity dilution, saying C.H. Robinson's productivity record sets "a credible path" to beating its $300 million synergy target.

Investors were less enthusiastic at first. C.H. Robinson shares fell $17.11, or 10.85%, on Monday to $140.61, and were down another 4.72% to about $133.98 around 1:05 p.m. ET Tuesday. RXO shares jumped $5.27, or 22.54%, on Monday to $28.65, then slipped about $0.37, or 1.29%, to $28.28 on Tuesday.

S&P affirmed its BBB+ debt rating on C.H. Robinson but shifted the outlook to negative, saying the acquisition will leave expected pro forma funds from operations to debt in the mid-to-high 20% range at close — materially below its 45% downside scenario — and pointing to integration risk. Moody's affirmed its Baa2 rating with the outlook unchanged. To strengthen its finances, C.H. Robinson said it will halt stock buybacks until it reaches a target leverage ratio of 1.75x to 2.25x net debt to adjusted EBITDA by the end of 2028.

The combined company would carry an enterprise value above $25 billion, serving 75,000 C.H. Robinson shippers plus 18,000 at RXO and 450,000 carriers plus another 150,000. C.H. Robinson expects $300 million in net run-rate cost synergies within two years of a close anticipated in the first half of 2027, with the deal accretive to adjusted earnings within nine months. CFO Damon Lee told analysts the customer overlap is "a very de minimis number" and not material.