Diesel drops $0.165 to $6.127 in EIA's week ending Nov. 9, but the agency raises its 2027 forecast 12% to $5.03 a gallon

The national diesel benchmark fell for a second straight week, and by the largest amount in this two-week slide, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Nov. 10. The agency put the U.S. average retail price of on-highway diesel at $6.127 a gallon for the week ending Nov. 9, down $0.165 from $6.292 a gallon a week earlier and down $0.225 from $6.352 a gallon on Oct. 26. The relief is relative: the same gallon averaged $3.837 a year ago, so diesel is still $2.29 a gallon higher than last November.

Every region EIA surveys moved down. The Rocky Mountain region posted the largest drop, down $0.239 to $6.206 a gallon, followed by the Midwest, down $0.201 to $6.201. The Gulf Coast was the lowest of the five main regions at $5.741 a gallon, down $0.171, the East Coast averaged $5.920, and the West Coast averaged $7.110. California remained the most expensive fuel in the country at $7.897 a gallon, down $0.179 on the week. Regular gasoline averaged $3.995 a gallon, down $0.158, leaving diesel $2.132 a gallon above gasoline.

The weekly EIA average is the benchmark used for most fuel surcharges, so this print is the one that moves money. FreightWaves, reporting the same Department of Energy and EIA release on Nov. 10, noted that the decline is the second in a row and takes the benchmark to its lowest level since Oct. 12 — seven weeks after it set the series record of $6.529 a gallon in September. A surcharge table keyed to the benchmark will step down as $6.127 replaces $6.292, trimming the all-in rate a broker quotes even when the linehaul underneath it has not moved — a lower all-in number driven by the surcharge is not a cut in what the freight itself pays.

The drop at the pump followed a sharp selloff in the futures market after Election Day. FreightWaves reported that ultra-low-sulfur diesel futures settled at $4.4216 a gallon on the first day of November, fell to $4.2148 on Monday, and were trading at $4.1409 late Tuesday morning. Brent crude settled at $104.77 a barrel on the first trading day of November, fell to $92.57 on Monday, and stood at $91.55 late Tuesday morning. Amrita Sen of Energy Aspects told Bloomberg Television on Tuesday that traders had positioned for an imminent strike before the election and sold off when it did not happen — the market has, in her words, erased the war risk premium.

Against that market optimism, the second EIA release of the day pointed the other way for anyone writing a 2027 fuel budget. In its Short-Term Energy Outlook, also released Nov. 10, EIA raised its forecast for the U.S. retail diesel price in 2027 to an average of $5.03 a gallon, up 12% from the $4.49 a gallon it forecast just last month, and raised its 2026 average to $5.25 a gallon from $5.19. EIA expects the Brent crude spot price to remain near $100 a barrel for the rest of this year, to average $97 a barrel in 2026 and $86 a barrel in 2027, and to fall gradually to an average of $77 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2027 as inventories rebuild.

The raised forecast rests on how tight physical supply still is. EIA said crude prices rose for a third consecutive month in October as falling global inventories, attacks on oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, constrained shipping and higher transport costs tightened supply. U.S. commercial crude inventories fell to 410 million barrels at the end of October, the lowest end-of-October level since 2014, and are expected to stay below the five-year average through the middle of next year. EIA assumes most Middle East production outside Iran returns to pre-conflict averages by mid-2027 and sees U.S. production reaching a record 14.3 million barrels a day in 2027, yet it now assumes product markets face continued supply constraints through the end of 2027, supporting wider crack spreads — the refining margin between crude and the pump price.

Two cautions belong on the forecast. EIA finalized the inputs to the outlook on Nov. 5 and says it does not specifically account for market events after that day, so the raised 2027 figure predates the post-election futures selloff described above. And the longer view is not settled: a Bank of America Merrill Lynch team led by Francisco Blanch, quoted by FreightWaves, wrote that global supply disruptions have reached record levels in 2026, exceeding anything in data going back to 1965, that the inventory cushion is being rapidly depleted, and that the direction of the U.S.-Iran war remains central to oil prices over the next 12 months.

For drivers and small fleets, the practical read splits by horizon. This week, check that your surcharge actually steps down to the $6.127 benchmark, and that a lower all-in quote is the surcharge moving, not the linehaul. For next year, do not rebuild a fuel budget on two weekly declines: the agency that publishes the benchmark now expects diesel to average $5.03 a gallon across 2027, $0.54 above what it expected a month ago — and even that figure was locked before the futures market's latest swing. Treat any budget built on last month's $4.49 outlook as already out of date.